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    WASHINGTON, Nov 20 (Reuters) – The uneasy balance between the wildfire-like spread of the coronavirus
    in the United States and an economy that remains largely open may be tested in coming
    weeks if face mask mandates and other lighter-touch measures
    fail to control the crisis.

    U.S. infections of COVID-19 are growing by more than 1 million a week, according to
    data from the COVID Tracking Project, and deaths are on the rise too.

    More than 252,000 people in the country have lost their lives to the disease.

    The intensifying pandemic may already have slowed hiring and begun to curtail retail spending on the cusp of
    the holiday shopping season, and JPMorgan analysts on Friday said they now think the economy may actually contract again at the start of the year as government restrictions spread.

    Instead of the “tailwind” of growth provided as stores reopened over the summer,
    the United States “now faces the headwind of increasing restrictions on activity. The holiday season – from Thanksgiving through New Year´s – threatens a further increase in cases. This winter will be grim,” wrote the analysts, who
    forecast growth of -1.0% on an annualized basis in the first quarter of
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    already, with New York City again closing schools.
    In a rare federal response from the “lame-duck” administration of President Donald Trump,
    the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has
    urged Americans not to travel for next week’s Thanksgiving holiday, which typically sees tens of millions on the move.

    Most states, though, are moving gingerly, curbing restaurant hours or seating
    capacity, but not shuttering nonessential businesses like during the early months of the U.S.
    outbreak in the spring.

    Still, the surge in cases appears to have capped the U.S.
    economic rebound, according to high-frequency data
    tracked by economists for real-time evidence about the recovery.

    Employment at a sample of mostly small businesses from time management firm Homebase website declined for a fourth week, and shifts worked across different industries fell, according
    to time management firm UKG website ivity.

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    The decline in shifts from mid-October to mid-November likely points to a
    weakening jobs report in November, he said.

    LOOKING ‘GRIM’

    Since the spring’s catastrophic drop in employment, the economy has
    clawed back about half of the more than 20
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    number of new claims for unemployment insurance rose for the first time in about a month.

    An index of new job postings from analytics firm Chmura website as of August had reached a high of 85% of the level predicted in the absence of
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    Workers may be in for a “grim” period, said AnnElizabeth Konkel,
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    Holiday hiring is largely complete, and unemployment benefits are expiring for many of those out of work since the spring, a lapse that
    may finally be weighing on national data.

    Initially, the flood of government support increased incomes for many families and supported consumer spending.
    Data on 30 million JPMorgan debit- and credit-card customers, however, showed spending fell “notably” in early November from a level just
    2.7% below 2019 to 7.4% below last year, said JPMorgan economist Jesse Edgerton.

    Declines were sharper in places where COVID-19 was
    spreading more rapidly but were still widespread, suggesting
    “a broader pullback in spending,” Edgerton wrote. U.S. retail sales in October also grew less than expected.

    That and other data indicate an outright decline in jobs
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    millions left jobless by the pandemic face a long road back to normal.

    SOME IMPROVEMENTS

    Vaccine prospects, however, “represent a ray of light at the end of the tunnel,”
    said Gregory Daco, chief U.S. economist at Oxford Economics.
    Oxford website ‘s recovery tracker rose slightly last week, snapping a five-week skid, a sign that the scale of economic collapse seen in the spring is not in the offing.

    Data from OpenTable website showed a slight rise in diners seated at restaurants over
    the past week even as new limits were imposed.

    Some Federal Reserve officials have noted how businesses, particularly in manufacturing, construction and some parts of the retail sector, have adapted to operating during the pandemic.
    A New York Fed website weekly index projecting growth in gross domestic product has
    risen steadily since the recession began.

    But Oxford’s index and other data have also remained largely
    stalled, well below pre-pandemic levels. Data tracking cellphone
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    That may remain the case until vaccines are rolled
    out to enough people to make a difference.

    Meanwhile, “the recovery is becoming entrenched in a low-growth mode, and we are worried about signs of lasting economic damage,” Daco wrote.

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